Ακόμα κι αν ναυτιλία αντιμετωπίζει όλο και αυστηρότερους περιβαλλοντικούς κανονισμούς σχετικά με το να μειώσεις τις εκπομπές καυσαερίων , Ο Lloyd’s Register προτείνει μια νέα μελέτη όπου η βιομηχανία θα μπορούσε να χρησιμοποιεί ακόμα πιο βαρύ μαζούτ από το 2030, καθώς η οικονομία βελτιώνεται .
Do not dismiss heavy fuel oil says Lloyd’s Register
EVEN though shipping is facing increased environmental legislation to reduce its emissions, a new study suggests the industry could be using even more heavy fuel oil by 2030, not less, as the economy improves.
A project run by UK class society Lloyd’s Register and the Energy Institute of University College London has assessed the potential fuel mix in shipping over the next 16 years, a follow-up to the global marine trends 2030 report that LR published last year.
The global marine fuel trends 2030 study assessed the potential of six fuel types, all with biofuel equivalents, against three economic scenarios.
The fuels include a range of oil-based fuels such as marine gas oil and heavy fuel oils, but also hydrogen, methanol and liquid natural gas, which many in the industry see as a new fuel for shipping.
The research scenarios mirror the scenarios used in last year’s study; a status quo in which global trade remains stagnant, a scenario of little trade increase called Competing Nations and a third scenario, Global Commons, based on increased global trade.
The latter scenario is the most optimistic for shipping as it assumes an increase in global trade that will increase the demand for tonnage.
The study tries to shed some light on how these potential trade scenarios impact fuel prices, legislation and the complex link between technology and fuel choice, especially as in all cases fuel costs are expected to increase.
Writing an introduction to the study, marine director Tom Boardley said future fuel decisions are not isolated to the maritime industry and that although the alternative fuels debate has been dominated by the interest in LNG other potentially viable options could be assimilated into shipping, becoming “business as normal”.
The study does, however, only look at the trends over the coming 16 years to 2030, whichdoes not cover the full life of a newbuilding delivered today.
As Mr Boardley points out any marine fuel, whether new or established, must be available, cost effective, compatible with technology or technology developments and, increasingly crucially, compliant with all regulations.
Among its predictions the LR study suggests that under its status quo scenario there would be weak adoption of LNG, and as expected a strong continuation using conventional fuels.
If there is strong growth in international trade through the Global Commons scenario there will be expected growth in the use of LNG and even hydrogen.
But as this scenario suggests more demand for shipping and larger fleets, the overall demand for heavy fuel oil will increase, not decrease, even though its share in percentage terms of the overall fuel mix may drop.
Under this scenario the demand for heavy fuel oil in 2030 could be 23\% higher than the demand for heavy fuel oil in 2010,which may not paint a good picture of shipping’s efforts to curb CO2 emissions.