The Issue of Turkey

By Constantinos Kyprios*

The issue of Turkey clearly demonstrates that the actions of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan aim at upgrading his country into a power that shapes developments in the wider region. These strategic moves have resulted in Turkey’s emergence as a key factor of influence. This is not coincidental, as Ankara has established military bases in Libya and Syria, where it now acts as a regulator of developments. At the same time, it maintains a presence in Albania and, through the creation of a strong naval force, seeks to demonstrate that it influences and controls the Eastern Mediterranean. As a result, Turkey presents itself as an “apple of discord” between Russia and the United States.

The question of whether this is feasible can be answered in the affirmative, as control of the Eastern Mediterranean constitutes a decisive factor for both the West and, to some extent, the East. Russia is interested in controlling the region in order to create a forward bastion against the West, while also securing influence over the Black Sea and neighboring areas. Europe, on the other hand, as it is in open confrontation with Russia, seeks an appropriate ally capable of ensuring the flow of raw materials from the Middle East, particularly oil. Finally, the United States is also interested in controlling the maritime routes of the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as in maintaining the ability to withdraw forces so that they can be redeployed to the Western Pacific, thereby strengthening deterrence against China.

Under these circumstances, Turkey is attempting to once again exploit a policy reminiscent of that pursued by the Ottoman Empire prior to the First World War, namely the strategy of shifting between the major powers. This policy had previously yielded significant benefits, allowing for ambitious plans and the strengthening of the armed forces. Similarly, today it is evident that Turkey will seek to take advantage of this opportunity in order to significantly enhance its military and economic power and achieve its strategic and commercial objectives. Consequently, Greece must act accordingly in order to effectively confront Turkish revisionism.

*Constantinos Kyprios

Strategic Analyst