Russian shipping and trade − Sanctions risk analysis


By Byron McKinney, Product Management Director, Maritime, Trade & Supply Chain, S&P Global Market Intelligence
A spate of events and actions have hit the headlines in recent months regarding Russian trade sanctions and the enforcement of its various components, most notably the Group of 7 (G7) coalition’s oil price cap.

Five vessels have been sanctioned in October and November 2023 for violating the price cap. The first two added to the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) specially designated nationals (SDN) list in October were a United Arab Emirates (UAE) based registered shipowner with clear association to a Russian group owner and a tanker owned by a Turkish entity. In November, a further three vessels were added to the list. These were all Russian group-owned but with technical or registered ownership in the UAE. US regulators have also implied an impending crackdown on the refining of Russian oil through third countries and its subsequent re-export to G7 nations. Furthermore, a US investigation into 30 shipowners and 100 vessels suspected of breaching the oil price cap is now underway, a number of these vessels have been subsequently found to be part of the Russian ghost or shadow fleet. Alongside these specific sanctioned entities and investigations, the EU’s 12th package of Russian trade sanctions strengthened the working principles of the price cap.

The backdrop to these actions is the continuing adaptation of Russia to the price cap and its restrictions. S&P Global Market Intelligence recently highlighted 55%-60% of Russian oil is being shipped outside the remit of a G7 or allied country for insurance services, ownership domicile or ship nationality. The price cap, since its inception in December 2022, has not been revised despite the fluctuating price of Russia’s main oil grade, Urals. This has effectively led to a scenario where large volumes of Russian crude oil are being shipped across the world without any bearing to the original price cap figure.

Read more as we identify and analyse the key changes to Russian trade in the preceding 12 months as found in maritime and trade datasets to understand potential changes to trade risk HERE.

Share this!