“Is a ceasefire in Ukraine possible?

By Constantinos Kyprios*

After four years of war, some rays of peace appear on the horizon. But is this truly a realistic possibility?

Regarding Russia, it seems that its strategic and tactical goals have been achieved. Namely, Crimea — from where it controls the Black Sea and hosts the Russian fleet — remains firmly under its control. Russia also controls the areas near the Don, where the river route connecting the Baltic and the North Sea to the Black Sea ends. The Ukrainian coasts, together with Crimea, ensure the secure movement of the Russian fleet, while the Russian minorities have been “secured,” and Ukraine’s geopolitical footprint has been reduced.

On the other hand, Ukraine has managed to maintain its national independence against the Russian onslaught, while the West has presented a strong and dynamic presence, proving that it remains a force with influence in Europe. The question now is whether peace can be achieved, and to what extent. As far as Ukraine is concerned, it is the great loser of the war, since its territorial losses and economic destruction are enormous. In any case, Russia seems to be the major winner, as it not only achieved its strategic objectives but also neutralized Ukraine and succeeded in keeping it out of the Western alliance.

Could things have turned out differently? Given the size and balance of power, it would have been difficult. Ukraine managed to preserve its independence only thanks to the massive support from the West. With even greater support, perhaps the situation could have been reversed — but even that would have been very challenging. Thus, yes, the West also partially achieved its goals: it appeared united and prevented the easy capture of Ukraine and the further strengthening of Russia.

Thus, yes, the West has partially achieved its own goals: it presented itself as united, prevented the rapid capture of Ukraine, and set limits on Russia’s further strengthening. So perhaps the time has come for this painful chapter to come to a close. Therefore, it is perhaps possible that this particular chapter may finally come to a close.

Constantinos Kyprios

Strategic Analyst