Capesize Market Review: Brazil’s Ore Corridors, the El Niño Rainfall Divide, and Contracting Against the C3
As the third quarter closes, we review C3 route performance through three lenses: Brazil’s shifting cargo mix, the El Niño rainfall divide across ore corridors, and the quarterly trend in Capesize contracting against the C3.
This Week’s Read
I
Brazilian Cargo Trends SOUTH RISING
The China-bound cargo mix has shifted south. Tubarão’s share of Brazil–China sailings has grown materially over the past two years while Ponta da Madeira has eased. Total Brazil–China flows remain broadly stable year on year.
II
El Niño & the Rainfall Divide WATCH THE NORTH
The September–November outlook favours below-normal rainfall across northern Brazil’s Carajás–Ponta da Madeira corridor, while the Tubarão corridor carries a weaker signal. In 2026, a drier wet season did not lift northern loadings — the softer pace is not rainfall-driven.
III
Capesize Contracting vs C3 STRONGEST SINCE 2018
Capesize ordering through the first eight months of 2026 is the strongest annual pace since 2018, with China-built tonnage now accounting for the vast majority of new contracts. On a four-quarter trailing basis, the order count and C3 rate have moved together — the full correlation analysis is in the report.
IV
What to Watch into Q4 KEY VARIABLES
Vale’s Q3 production report, the Port Hedland negotiation outcome, whether Tubarão maintains its higher cargo share, and how the C3 forward balance develops as ballast tonnage returns to the South Atlantic.
