[xclusiv] S&P Report 25th November 2024
Market Commentary:
As we approach the end of 2024, we observe that dry bulk prices have increased significantly this year, reaching their year-to-date highs during Q3 2024. More specifically, within early Q3 2024, 5- and 10-year-old Capesize BCs were valued at around USD 64 mills and USD 45 mills respectively, 17% and 27% up compared to early January 2024 values. Similarly, 5- and 10-year-old Kamsarmaxes climbed to USD 39.5 mills and USD 30 mills in Q3 2024, almost 18% and 23% up respectively since January 2024 values. Ultramax 5- and 10-year-old prices increased by 19% and 38% from January to August 2024 and topped at USD 36.2 mills and USD 28.2 mills. Last but not least, the 5 and 10-year old Handysize prices reached also their year-to-date high within Q3 2024 and were valued at around USD 28.8 million and USD 21 million respectively, almost 7% and 17% up compared to early January 2024 values.
Nevertheless the outlook for second-hand dry bulk prices has shifted, as dry bulk market rates – excluding Capesizes – have dropped considerably over the past three and a half months. The Kamsarmax 5 TC Average closed the week at USD 9,951/day, almost 35% down compared to 2nd August 2024. A similar trend has been observed in the Ultramax 11 TC Average which currently pays USD 12,470/day, down by 26% compared to early August 2024, while the Handysize 7 TC Average has lost around 12% during the same period and closed the week at USD 12,079/day. The Capesize 5 TC Average, characterized by its volatile nature, is currently paying USD 21,778/day, up 13% from early August 2024 levels. (Reversing a decline from USD 14,811/day in late October 2024.)
The weakening of time charter rates has led to a correction in second-hand prices, especially for 5-year-old and 10-year-old Kamsarmax, Ultramax, and Handysize, which has seen prices decline by 5% to 17%. More specifically, Kamsarmax prices have been hit the hardest, with a 13% decline for 5-year-old vessels and a 17% decline for 10-year-old vessels from their Q3 peak. Handysize prices have decreased by 8% for 5-year-old vessels and 10% for 10-year-old vessels. Meanwhile, Ultramax prices have softened by 5% for 5-year-old vessels and 13% for 10-year-old vessels since their Q3 peak. The Capesize segment, while volatile, has shown resilience compared to other segments, with 5 and 10-year-old prices remaining stable from their Q3 peak.
This week, we saw an abundance of vessels hitting the sales market. The Capesize and Ultramax/Supramax sectors were quite active, with 6 vessels in these categories coming for sale. The week likewise saw many vessels changing hands, across numerous sectors, as buyers look to invest at discounted levels.
Sale and Purchase
Dry:
This week was a very active week for the dry bulk sector, with a total of 15 vessels finding new homes. The Newcastlemax “Amber Horizon” – 208K/2010 Universal committed at USD 32.5 mills. On the Capesize sector, the Scrubber fitted “Nord Energy”- 179K/2012 HHIC and the “Nord Power” – 179K/2012 HHIC were sold for high USD 31 mills each. Moreover, the “Nordboen Sun”- 169K/2010 Daehan found new owners for USD 23.5 mills. Moving down the sizes, the Post-Panamax “Pisces First” – 93K/2010 JNS was sold for USD 12.9 mills to Chinese buyers, while the Kamsarmax “AM Contrecoeur” – 82K/2011 Tsuneishi Zhoushan was sold for USD 17.8 mills to Greek buyers. There was strong interest in Ultramax and Supramax vessels. Clients of Amoy Sailing acquired the Ultramax “Great Century”- 61K/2017 Dalian Cosco for USD 24.52 mills via auction. The Supramax “Elikon” – 57K/2013 STX Dalian was sold for USD 17.2 mills to Vietnamese buyers, whilst the sister vessel “Mystras”- 57K/2013 STX Dalian was sold for USD 17.2 mills to clients of Vosco. We noted 3x sales of 15-year-old Supramaxes, the “Aurora Sb”- 56K/2009 Mitsui which was sold for mid/high USD 15 mills to Chinese buyers. Furthermore, the Supramax “Atlantica Sun” – 56K/2009 Mitsui changed hands for USD 15.2 mills, while the “PPS Luck” – 55K/2009 Kawasaki found new owners for USD 15.7 mills. Finally, the Electronic M/E Handysize “Wellpark” – 37K/2014 Oshima was sold for low USD 19 mills.
Wet:
The recent period of subdued activity has given way to a more active week. Asian buyers acquired the VLCC “Xidi” – 306K/2004 Mitsubishi for excess USD 30 mills, while the VLCC “Tricia II” – 281K/2000 Mitsubishi was sold for region USD 21 mills basis prompt delivery in Singapore. On the Suezmax sector, the Ice Class 1A “Umnenga II” – 162K/2006 Daewoo was sold for USD 36 mills to Nigerian buyers. UAE buyers acquired the Aframax “Sofia II”- 105K/2008 Sumitomo for low USD 30’s mills. Last but not least, the Small tanker “Maersk Bering” – 29K/2005 GSI was sold for high USD 15 mills to Chinese buyers.