As the third quarter closes, we review C3 route performance through three lenses: Brazil’s shifting cargo mix, the El Ni\u00f1o rainfall divide across ore corridors, and the quarterly trend in Capesize contracting against the C3.<\/p>\n
This Week’s Read<\/p>\n
I
\nBrazilian Cargo Trends \u00a0SOUTH RISING<\/p>\n
The China-bound cargo mix has shifted south. Tubar\u00e3o’s share of Brazil\u2013China sailings has grown materially over the past two years while Ponta da Madeira has eased. Total Brazil\u2013China flows remain broadly stable year on year.
\nII
\nEl Ni\u00f1o & the Rainfall Divide \u00a0WATCH THE NORTH<\/p>\n
The September\u2013November outlook favours below-normal rainfall across northern Brazil’s Caraj\u00e1s\u2013Ponta da Madeira corridor, while the Tubar\u00e3o corridor carries a weaker signal. In 2026, a drier wet season did not lift northern loadings \u2014 the softer pace is not rainfall-driven.
\nIII
\nCapesize Contracting vs C3 \u00a0STRONGEST SINCE 2018<\/p>\n
Capesize ordering through the first eight months of 2026 is the strongest annual pace since 2018, with China-built tonnage now accounting for the vast majority of new contracts. On a four-quarter trailing basis, the order count and C3 rate have moved together \u2014 the full correlation analysis is in the report.
\nIV
\nWhat to Watch into Q4 \u00a0KEY VARIABLES<\/p>\n
Vale’s Q3 production report, the Port Hedland negotiation outcome, whether Tubar\u00e3o maintains its higher cargo share, and how the C3 forward balance develops as ballast tonnage returns to the South Atlantic.<\/p>\n