By Constantinos Kyprios*<\/p>\n
The issue of closing the Strait of Hormuz represents a particular case that demonstrates how a country with inferior military capabilities to theWestern powers can still confront them or create significant problems. A relatively inexpensive means, such as naval mines, can create a strategic challenge of unprecedented scale.<\/p>\n
Approximately 20% of the world\u2019s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and therefore its closure could lead to an unprecedented economic crisis.<\/p>\n
Another important issue is that almost all the ports of the region are located within the Persian Gulf. The ports of Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, as well as the main ports of Saudi Arabia, are all located inside the Gulf. This means that if the Strait were closed, supplying these ports would become extremely difficult. Consequently, it becomes evident that a relatively cheap weapon, such as a naval mine, can inflict damage of major strategic significance.<\/p>\n
In this case, another weakness of Western strategy becomes apparent. In recent years, it had been decided that little emphasis should be placed on countering naval mines, as they were considered to have largely disappeared from the modern arsenal. As a result, only a small number of specialized vessels currently serve in the naval forces of NATO in this role. In the present situation, therefore, the burden largely falls on the United States, which, although possessing limited capabilities, has developed certain mine warfare capacities, including the ability for rapid deployment. The main question, therefore, is whether the West and the global economy can withstand the economic dimension of such a crisis, namely the potential strikes by Iranian ballistic missiles against strategic infrastructure and the mining of the Strait.<\/p>\n
How, then, can such a situation be addressed? The development of appropriate countermeasures represents one possible solution. These include strengthening missile defense systems, deploying mine countermeasure vessels and capabilities, as well as other military assets. However, the most crucial factor concerns the time dimension of the crisis\u2014namely how events will unfold and how long the situation will last. For this reason, strategy must be both effective and clearly defined.<\/p>\n
If the ultimate objective is regime change in Iran, then even the possibility of a ground invasion should not be ruled out. The Persian Gulf region possesses the necessary infrastructure for the rapid deployment of military forces. Since the 1980s, the appropriate facilities have been developed to enable the rapid deployment of thousands of troops in a very short period of time.<\/p>\n
These infrastructures were originally established in order to counter the possibility of a rapid invasion of the region by the Soviet Union.<\/p>\n
A swift resolution of the crisis is crucial because the longer the situation persists, the greater the uncertainty for the global economy. A rapid solution would not only achieve the desired strategic outcome but could also restore the international stability that is sought. This stability would not concern only the Strait of Hormuz but also the wider region, including the Strait of Oman, since the Houthis\u2014who attack freedom of navigation\u2014are financed and armed by Iran.<\/p>\n
Therefore, in any case, an immediate solution\u2014whether diplomatic, if achievable, or military\u2014appears to be the desirable outcome.<\/p>\n
*Constantinos Kyprios<\/p>\n
Strategic Analyst<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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