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More policy support for China\u2019s economy, including boosts to banks\u2019 lending power, is likely in coming months, some analysts say, to dispel gloom cast by property cooling measures, a burst of regulatory vigour, and China Evergrande Group\u2019s woes.<\/p>\n
\u201cChina\u2019s property sector and overall economy will slow notably, credit risks will rise further and there is an increasing need for Beijing to step up its policy support,\u201d Nomura analysts wrote this week, as fears of a default by China\u2019s second-largest property developer rocked global markets.<\/p>\n
Economists downplay the idea that the scale of Evergrande\u2019s 3333.HK problems represent a \u201cLehman moment\u201din terms of global contagion risks, but it has certainly complicated matters for Beijing\u2019s policymakers.<\/p>\n
They have been trying to curb rampant borrowing and prevent an asset bubble in property, which accounts for about a quarter of China\u2019s economy and is a key driver of demand for materials including concrete and steel.<\/p>\n
Repeating that \u201chousing is for living in, not for speculation,\u201d authorities have limited developers\u2019 debt ratios and access to loans and restricted house purchases.<\/p>\n
At the same time, a regulatory squeeze across several industries in the name of President Xi Jinping\u2019s \u201ccommon prosperity\u201d push, including banning much private tutoring and limiting minors\u2019 online gaming, has ramped up uncertainty for companies and roiled share markets.<\/p>\n
Many analysts expect another cut to the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve later this year, after a cut in July, although officials\u2019 comments earlier this month cooled expectations for imminent easing.<\/p>\n
\u201cWith the economy losing steam and concerns around the property sector growing, we think policy rate cuts by the PBOC could come as soon as next month,\u201d Capital Economics wrote on Wednesday, referring to the People\u2019s Bank of China.<\/p>\n
Other analysts think a cut is possible but unlikely before the end of the year.<\/p>\n
China stood pat on its benchmark lending rate for corporate and household loans for the 17th straight month at its September fixing.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s economy roared back to life after a coronavirus-induced slump in 2020, but activity fell back recently amid regulatory measures, supply bottlenecks and restrictions from localised COVID-19 outbreaks.<\/p>\n
Bank of America cut its China growth forecast for this year on Tuesday to 8.0% from 8.3%, and its 2022 forecast to 5.3% from 6.2%.<\/p>\n
HOME PRICES SLOW, NEW BUILDS FALL, LOANS WEAKEN<\/p>\n
More than 20 cities strengthened curbs on the property sector in August, when China\u2019s home prices showed the slowest monthly rise since December. New property starts over the first eight months fell 3.2% from the previous year.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe property down-cycle could cause growth pressure to mount next year, when policy focus might shift from regulation to policy supports for defending the 5% growth bottom line,\u201d said Larry Hu of Macquarie, in a note.<\/p>\n
Investors should look to the December meeting of China\u2019s Politburo for signals on next year\u2019s priorities, he added.<\/p>\n
A wave of new regulations across tech and education has dampened business and wiped hundreds of billions of dollars from corporate valuations.<\/p>\n
Weak loan growth in August was likely in part due to the regulatory clampdown, Iris Pang, chief economist for Greater China at ING, said in a note.<\/p>\n
Some firms are not taking out loans as they reconsider investment, or find banks unwilling to take the risk amid uncertainties, she said.<\/p>\n
The crackdown on the education and tech sectors also added to exceptionally bad services activity data for August, ING\u2019s Pang said.<\/p>\n
Last month, Reuters reported that TikTok owner Bytedance had told employees it planned to lay off staff in its education business and close some tutoring operations. Juren Education Group, in the after-school tutoring sector, said earlier this month that it would shut down.<\/p>\n
Services sector activity fell into sharp contraction in August for the first time since the depths of the pandemic in February last year, mainly due to COVID-19-related restrictions.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Gabriel Crossley; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
More policy support for China\u2019s economy, including boosts to banks\u2019 lending power, is likely in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":200192,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[297],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-200195","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy-english"],"yoast_head":"\n